Allais' classic experiment on decision theory
Source: Wikipedia
Allais' classic experiment on decision theory
Source: Wikipedia
- 45% of the world's leading decision theorists were inconsistent in 1952!
Allais' classic experiment on decision theory
Source: Wikipedia
- 45% of the world's leading decision theorists were inconsistent in 1952!
Insight 1
Experiment = artificial environment/setup to test a theory about how the (social) world works.
Randomized Controlled Trials Experiment that tests causal claims
- If we randomly divide subjects into treatment and control groups: They come from the same underlying population.
→→ Similar on average, in every way,
including their Y0Y0 !
→E[Y0i|D=1]=E[Y0i|D=0]→E[Y0i|D=1]=E[Y0i|D=0]!
Randomized Controlled Trials Experiment that tests causal claims
- If we randomly divide subjects into treatment and control groups: They come from the same underlying population.
→→ Similar on average, in every way,
including their Y0Y0 !
→E[Y0i|D=1]=E[Y0i|D=0]→E[Y0i|D=1]=E[Y0i|D=0]!
E[Y1i|D=1]−E[Y0i|D=0]=E[Y0i+κ|D=1]−E[Y0i|D=0],=κ+E[Y0i|D=1]−E[Y0i|D=0]⏟0⏟(if randomization has worked),=κ.⏟The average causal effect
2) Healthcare chauvinism A conjoint survey experiment with Mikkel
- (2 X 2 X 2 X 2 =) 16 full factorial design.
- Power analysis for β=0.05: n=2,500 with 3 choices per respondent.
- Power ~1 for AMCE &
0.7 for AMCIE.
Healthcare chauvinism
Healthcare chauvinism
Insight 2
Many RCTs don't really test a causal change induced by X, but rather elicit latent opinions.