Misperceived Discrimination

class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide

.title[
# Misperceived Discrimination
]
.subtitle[
## Opening up a New Field of Research
]
.author[
### Merlin Schaeffer
]
.date[
### 2026-04-10
]

---

---

# Discrimination reports are rising

.left-column[
<img src="./media/Anti-Diskriminierungsstelle.png" width="97%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: [Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency](https://www.antidiskriminierungsstelle.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publikationen/Jahresberichte/2024.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2)]]

]

.right-column[
<img src="./media/DW.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: [Deutsche Welle](https://www.antidiskriminierungsstelle.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publikationen/Jahresberichte/2024.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2)]]
]

---
class: clear
# Factually better conditions often coincide with more reports of discrimination

.push-left[
<img src="./media/Freda-LGBTQ.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: [EU-FRA: LGBTIQ Survey III 2023](https://fra.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/data-and-maps/2024/eu-lgbtiq-survey-iii)]]
]

.push-right[
<img src="./media/Freda-2024.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: [EU-FRA: Gender-based violence survey 2024](https://fra.europa.eu/sites/default/files/fra_uploads/eu-gender_based_violence_survey_key_results.pdf)]]
]

---
# A Dynamic of Perceptual Divergence?

---
class: clear inverse
# Divergent perceptions raise <br> the uncomfortable question of *accuracy*

.left-column[
<br>
<br>

.center[1) We cannot observe <br> hidden intentions]
<img src="https://www.skolske.sk/storage/article/780x520_1588025770_article.jpg" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.right-column[
.center[
2) Ordinary people aren't great with relative frequencies
]

<img src="./media/APSR.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.backgrnote[.white[
Schaeffer, Merlin, Romarri, A., Rosenberg, D., and Krakowski, K. (forthcoming): "When Politics Enters the Waiting Room: Far-Right Electoral Victories Exacerbate Discrimination in Access to Healthcare."<br> *American Political Science Review*
]]]

---
# Misperceived *Prevalence* .font70[of Discrimination]

.left-column[
.font80[
Researchers from the University of Copenhagen conducted a study on discrimination. They did this by sending fictitious applications to *primary schools* in Denmark.

The fictitious applications were exactly the same except for one thing: the name of the *father of the child who was to be admitted to the school*.

Out of 100 fictitious applications with Danish-sounding names, 25 were able to get the child admitted to the school.

_**What do you think:** out of 100 fictitious applications with Muslim-sounding names, how many were able to get the child admitted to the school?_
]]

.right-column[
.center[
<img src="./media/all_misp-2.png" width="79%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.backgrnote[.black[Schaeffer, Merlin, Krakowski, k., and Olsen, A. (2026): "Correcting Misperceptions about
Ethno‑Racial Discrimination" *American Journal of Political Science* 70(1): 54-75]]]]

???
- We did this with all filed experiments conducted in DK so far: Peter, Asmus, etc.
- Let me help you interpret this.

---
# Misperceived *Prevalence* .font70[of Discrimination]

.right-column[
.center[
<img src="./media/all_misp-2.png" width="79%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[.black[Schaeffer, Merlin, Krakowski, k., and Olsen, A. (2026): “Correcting Misperceptions about
Ethno‑Racial Discrimination” *American Journal of Political Science* 70(1): 54-75]]]]]

.left-column[
<img src="./media/PredictPrev.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

???
- In contrast to 3 mechanisms: No evidence of vested interest in perceiving little discrimination.
  + Even among those who are against immigration!
  + Only education: We academics are more off!
---
# Misperceived *Prevalence* .font70[of Discrimination]

.push-left[
<img src="./media/HaalandRoth.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: Haaland and Roth (2023)]]
]

???
- Same in the US for discrimination against Black people.

.push-left[
<img src="./media/Schaerer.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: Schaerer, du
Plessis, Nguyen et al. (2023)]]
]

???
- Same for how prevalent we believe gender discrimination to be.

---
class: inverse center
# Misperceived *Prevalence* of Discrimination

<br>
<br>
.content-box-green[
**Claim 1**: Majority members tend to **over**-perceive the prevalence of minority discrimination
]

--
<br>
<br>

.push-left[
<img src="./media/Krarup2.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[.white[*Source*: Østergaard (2020)]]]
]

.push-right[
<img src="./media/Kraruping.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
class: clear
#  Mis*expected* *Personal* Discrimination .font60[in Behavioral Games]

.right-column[
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<img src="./media/Sender-en.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
€10 Endowment `\(\times 3\)` for every € entrusted
]]

.left-column[.font80[
<table class="table" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> Sample </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> % </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Native mainstream </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 1348 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 47.7 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Immigrant </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 888 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 31.4 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Desc. of immigrant </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 589 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 20.8 </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

]

<br>
.alert[.font80[True first name & city from public registers]]
.backgrnote[Alisina, Ahmad, Anne, Binyamin, Joyce, Somaia, Sarah, Hayriye, Saibe, Björn, Salem, Fabienne, Sadet, Linda, Margarita, Ali, Joseph, Mhd Kheir, Baran, Bahaa, Jebran, Reno, Seiji, Irina, Ajsel, Christine, Rahim, Yaw Abrefa, Mark, Anjali Dev ...]

<br>

.font80[10 games with different partners]]

---
class: clear
#  Mis*expected* *Personal* Discrimination .font60[in Behavioral Games]

.left-column[
`\(\text{Act Discr}_{ij} = \bar{€}_{j\text{(Germ. name)}} - €_{ij}\)`
]

.right-column[
<img src="Konstanz26_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

???
To measure actual discrimination, our identification strategy is a within-partner comparison

The formula shows that for your partner Christina, we take the average she sent to all her German-named partners and subtract what she sent to you.
---
class: clear
#  Mis*expected* *Personal* Discrimination .font60[in Behavioral Games]

.left-column[
After the 10 Games:<br> Expectations to be discriminated
 
70% outgroup game partners for both native majority & immigrant minority players.
]

.right-column[
<img src="media/Perception-en.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
---
class: clear
#  Mis*expected* *Personal* Discrimination .font60[in Behavioral Games]

---
class: clear
#  Mis*expected* *Personal* Discrimination .font60[in Behavioral Games]

???
In 67% games immigrants and their descendants did not expect discrimination; <br> 78% they were correct

If they expected unequal treatment, 95% they were inaccurate

---
class: clear
#  Mis*expected* *Personal* Discrimination .font60[in Behavioral Games]

---
class: clear
.left-column[
<br>
.font150[.red[**Predictors of** <br> Mis_expected_ _Personal_ Discrimination]]

.backgrnote[
Filled estimates: bivariate

Hollow dots: multiple
]]

.right-column[
<img src="media/Report_1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
---
class: clear
# Mis*expected* *Personal* Discrimination .font70[is Costly]

.push-right[
<img src="Konstanz26_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[Based Selten (1967)'s strategy method.]]
]

.push-left[
<img src="Konstanz26_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.center[
`\((-0.766€  + -0.401€)  \times 3 \times \frac{2}{3} \times 2 = -4.7€\)`

`\(\frac{-4.7€}{20€} = \color{red}{-23.5\%}\)`

]]

---
class: inverse center

# Mis*expected* *Personal* Discrimination

<br>
<br>
.content-box-green[
**Claim 2**: Immigrant minority members rarely expect to be discriminated,<br> but when they do, they tend to over-generalize from prior experiences of discrimination;<br> this is costly.
]

---
class: center
background-image: url("./media/PerceivedDiscrimination.png")
background-position: center;
background-size: cover

# .white[Mis*perceived Personal* Discrimination]

---
class: clear
# Mis*perceived Personal* Discrimination .font70[Follow-up]

**On average, your ten game partners sent and thereby entrusted 6 € to you.**

In addition, your ten game partners played trust games with other 68 more participants. 25 of these other participants had names that sound typically German.

Below you see a selection of three of these participants with names that sound typically German.

**On average, your game partners sent and thereby entrusted 8 € to these three persons:**

Annegret from Hamburg

Klaus from Berlin

Hartmut from München

**The three have thus received** .font120[.alert[2 € more than you.]] **How do you rate this result?**

<select class='webex-select'><option value='blank'></option><option value='answer'>My name played a role: I was disadvantaged by my game partners.</option><option value=''>My name did not play a role: I was simply unlucky</option></select>

---
class: clear
# Mis*perceived Personal* Discrimination .font70[Follow-up]

**On average, your ten game partners sent and thereby entrusted 6 € to you.**

In addition, your ten game partners played trust games with other 68 more participants. 25 of these other participants had names that sound typically German.

Below you see a selection of three of these participants with names that sound typically German.

**On average, your game partners sent and thereby entrusted 4 € to these three persons:**

Annegret from Hamburg

Klaus from Berlin

Hartmut from München

**The three have thus received** .font120[.alert[2 € less than you.]] **How do you rate this result?**

<select class='webex-select'><option value='blank'></option><option value='answer'>My name played a role: I was advantaged by my game partners.</option><option value=''>My name did not play a role: I was simply lucky.</option></select>

---
class: clear
# Mis*perceived Personal* Discrimination .font70[Follow-up]

**On average, your ten game partners sent and thereby entrusted 6 € to you.**

In addition, your ten game partners played trust games with other 68 more participants. 25 of these other participants had names that sound typically German.

Below you see a selection of three of these participants with names that sound typically German.

**On average, your game partners sent and thereby entrusted 6 € to these three persons:**

Annegret from Hamburg

Klaus from Berlin

Hartmut from München

**The three have thus received** .font120[.alert[the same amount as you]]. **How do you rate this result?**

<select class='webex-select'><option value='blank'></option><option value='answer'>My name played a role: In this case I nevertheless received the same.</option><option value=''>My name did not play a role: I was treated equally by my game partners.</option></select>

---
class: clear
# Mis*perceived* Discrimination .font70[My name played a role ...]

---
class: clear inverse center
# Mis*perceived Personal* Discrimination

<br>
<br>
.content-box-green[
**Claim 3**: Once the frame of discrimination becomes salient, a substantial minority (~40%) perceives discrimination.

**Claim 4**: *People* tend to over-interpret ambiguous signals as evidence of discrimination.
]

<br>
.font140[.center[
.alert[.white[Thank you for your attention!]]
]]

---
layout: false
count: false
# References

.font70[
Haaland, I. and C. Roth (2023). "Beliefs About Racial Discrimination and Support for Pro Black
Policies". In: _Review of Economics and Statistics_, pp. 40-53.

Østergaard, A. (2020). _Detektor: Efter racismedebat – Dansk Folkeparti anerkender
forskelsbehandling_.

Schaeffer, M., J. Kas, and P. Hagedorn (2023a). "The Association between Actual and Perceived
Discrimination (APAD): Technical Report". In: _SocArXiv_.

Selten, R. (1967). "Die Strategiemethode zur Erforschung des eingeschränkt rationalen Verhaltens im
Rahmen eines Oligopolexperiments". In: _Beiträge zur experimentellen Wirtschaftsforschung_. Ed. by H.
Sauermann. Tübingen: Mohr, pp. 136-168.
]

---
# Study Design and Sample

.center[
Pre-game survey (n=2,825) `\(\rightarrow\)` Trust games (n=2,010) `\(\rightarrow\)` Pay-out experiment (n=1,880)
]

.push-left[
- Stratified random sample from population registers

- 50% native-born with native born parents,

- Invitation via postal mail.

- Unconditional €20 after survey.<br> Up to €120 overall.

- Online surveys/games in German.<br>Jun '21 to Mar '22.

- Response rate approx. 12%-4%.
]

.push-right[
<img src="./media/Sample.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: Schaeffer, Kas, and Hagedorn (2023a)]]
]

---

.left-column[
n = 1,880

Focus on 878 immigrant origin respondents.

Before full information on overall payout.

3 random conditions: .red[Disadvantage, equal treatment], and advantage.

No deception.
]