Misperceived Discrimination

class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide

.title[
# Misperceived Discrimination
]
.subtitle[
## Opening up a New Field of Research
]
.author[
### Merlin Schaeffer
]
.date[
### 2025-06-17
]

---

layout: true
class: clear

# Perceived Prevalence .font50[How prevalent is discrimination (mis)perceived to be?]

.left-column[
<img src="./media/Janus.webp" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: ChatGPT 4]]
]

???
- Second dimension of Contested Discrimination: Competing views `$rightarrow$` competing perceived prevalences.
- Example (not directly related) representing my curiosity:
  + Black and White people agree relations have considerably deteriorated in the US. 
  + But were things really better in 2001?

---

.right-column[
<img src="./media/Gender.png" width="91%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: [Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1687/race-relations.aspx)]]
]

???
- A divergence of perceptions is more obvious when it comes to the topic of my work.
- ChatGPT graphic: 
  1. How come that the same reality may be perceived so differently?
  2. Is there also a trend over time?
  3. How do these perceptions deviate from "reality"?

---

.right-column[
| Social Mechanism | Minority | Majority |
|-----------|------------|--------|
| Divergent *Awareness* | Integration `$\rightarrow$` awareness of group's enduring marginalized status. <br><br>| Minority integration `$\rightarrow$` impression of society's successful diversification. <br><br>| 
| Divergent *Definition* | Claim to equality `$\rightarrow$` increased sensitivity & confidence to interpret subtle events as discrimination. <br><br>| Maintain way of life and privileges `$\rightarrow$` set high standards for what constitutes discrimination and being accused of it. <br><br>|
| Divergent *Opportunity Structure* | ... a minority experiences it 13 times(!) more often `$(\frac{93}{7} \approx 13)$`. | For every interaction in which a (Danish) majority member engages in or witnesses discrimination, ... <br> `$\leftarrow$`|
]

???
- Three social mechanisms could explain a trend of divergence.

- **Do the 3 mechanisms drive perceptions away from "reality"?**

- The field lacks a methodology to measure misperceptions of discrimination – a crucial barrier.
- **Remainder of talk: My experimentation with various methods** to measure misperceptions of discrimination. 
  + But **no answer yet**, whether these three social mechanisms drive them!

---
layout: false
class: clear

.content-box-blue[.center[
**How accurately do majority and minority citizens <br> perceive ethno-racial discrimination?**
]]

.left-column[
<br>
<br>

.center[We cannot observe <br> *hidden* intentions.]

<img src="https://www.skolske.sk/storage/article/780x520_1588025770_article.jpg" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.right-column[
.push-left[
<br>
<img src="media/Black_Female_Caller2.png" width="35%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.push-right[
<br>
<img src="media/White_Female_Caller.png" width="35%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
<img src="./media/IT-Healthcare.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: Schaeffer, Krakowski, Romarri, and Rosenberg (2024)]]

.center[.font90[
`$\rightarrow$` **Limitation**: .alert[Fictitious cases] identify discrimination in the .alert[aggregate]!
]]]

---
class: inverse middle center
# Misperceived *Prevalence* of Discrimination

<br>
<br>
.content-box-green[
**Claim 1**: Mainstream majority members tend to *over*perceive prevalence of minority discrimination.

**Claim 2**: Lack of awareness does not explain low support for anti-discrimination legislation.
]

<br>
.left-column[
<img src="./media/Carlsbergfondet_logo_2-liner_UK_RGB_BLACK.svg" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.right-column[.font90[.left[
Schaeffer, Merlin, Krzysztof Krakowski, and Asmus Olsen (2024): “Correcting Misperceptions about
Ethno‑Racial Dis‑crimination: The Limits of Evidence‑Based Awareness Raising to Promote Support for
Equal‑Treatment Policies.” *American Journal of Political Science*: 10.1111/ajps.12933
]]]

???
- First method: Misperceived prevalence.
- Focus on majority members: Native-born Danes with native-born parents.

---
# Misperceived *Prevalence*

.right-column[
.font80[
Now we are interested in hearing your thoughts on a recent social science study.

**Researchers from the University of Copenhagen conducted a study on discrimination against non-Western minorities in Danish primary schools.** They did this by sending fictitious applications to primary schools in Denmark, where a parent requested to transfer their child to the school's 3rd grade.

**The fictitious applications were exactly the same except for one thing: the name of the father of the child who was to be admitted to the school and who sent the email.** Half of the applications had a typically Danish-sounding name such as "Peter Nielsen," while the other half had a typically Muslim-sounding name such as "Mohammad Osman."

The researchers wanted to find out whether schools would view the exact same application more positively if it was sent by a parent with a Danish-sounding name compared to a parent with a Muslim-sounding name.

**Out of 100 fictitious applications with Danish-sounding names, 25 of the applications were able to get the child admitted to the school.**

**What do you think: out of 100 fictitious applications with Muslim-sounding names, how many of the applications were able to get the child admitted to the school?**
]]

???
- Inspired by two economists: We explain field experiment and ask people what outcome they suspect.

---
# Misperceived *Prevalence*

.right-column[
.center[
<img src="./media/all_misp-2.png" width="85%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]]

???
- We did this with all filed experiments conducted in DK so far: Peter, Asmus, etc.
- Let me help you interpret this.

.left-column[
<img src="./media/PredictPrev.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

???
- In contrast to 3 mechanisms: No evidence of vested interest in perceiving little discrimination.
  + Even among those who are against immigration!
  + Only education: We academics are more off!
---
# Misperceived *Prevalence*

.push-left[
<img src="./media/HaalandRoth.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: Haaland and Roth (2023)]]
]

???
- Same in the US for discrimination against Black people.

.push-left[
<img src="./media/Schaerer.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: Schaerer, du
Plessis, Nguyen, van
Aert, Tiokhin, Lakens, Giulia Clemente, Pfeiffer, Dreber, Johannesson, Clark, and Luis Uhlmann (2023)]]
]

???
- Same for how prevalent we believe gender discrimination to be.

---
layout: false
# Factual Correction

???
- Unsurprisingly, informing people about the actual result, does not change their recognition of the problem.
  + Not even among those who underestimated the extent of discrimination.

---
class: clear
# Divergent Definition?

.push-left[
<img src="./media/Fig5_Correction_a1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.push-right[

.left-column[
<br>
<img src="./media/Krarup1.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.right-column[
<br>
<img src="./media/Krarup2.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[.backgrnote[*Source*: Østergaard (2020)]]
]

.center[
<iframe width="500" height="290" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HNU_4nEnPNc?si=1tyj-xGYI-rVKcOO" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
]]

???
- But maybe the causality runs the other way around: 
  + Because its not seen as unjust, it is prevalent?

---
class: inverse middle center

# Mis*expected* *Personal* Discrimination

<br>
<br>
.content-box-green[
**Claim 3**: Typically, immigrant minority members do not expect to be discriminated, but when they do, their expectations tend to be inaccurate.

**Claim 4**: Immigrant minority members tend to over-generalize from prior experiences of discrimination.

**Claim 5**: This over-generalization is costly.
]

<br>
.left-column[
<img src="./media/dfg_logo_schriftzug_blau_foerderung_en.gif" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.right-column[.font90[.left[
Collaborators: **Judith Kas**, Pia Hagedorn, and Nina Magdeburg.
]]]

???
- I initially started thinking about this 10 years ago.
- My original question was another one: Are there negative consequences of perceiving too much discrimination?
  + Does it make you unhappy beyond actual reason for it?
- Personal discrimination: **Do _you_ misperceive the discrimination that _you_ experience?**
- Much more difficult: Actual: **Repeated experimental observations** for **real people who can have perceptions**!

---
class: clear
# Central Idea .font70[Mutual evaulation in behavioral games]

.left-column[

<br>
<table class="table" style="color: black; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> Sample </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> % </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Mainstream </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 1348 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 47.7 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Immigrant </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 888 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 31.4 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Desc. of immigrant </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 589 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 20.8 </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

<br>
<br>
.alert[.center[.font120[True first name & city <br> from public registers]]]<br>
.backgrnote[Alisina, Ahmad, Anne, Binyamin, Joyce, Somaia, Sarah, Hayriye, Saibe, Björn, Salem, Fabienne, Sadet, Linda, Margarita, Ali, Joseph, Mhd Kheir, Baran, Bahaa, Jebran, Reno, Seiji, Irina, Ajsel, Christine, Rahim, Yaw Abrefa, Mark, Anjali Dev, Elmar, Anke, Laura, Heiko, ...]
]

.right-column[
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<img src="./media/Sender-en.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

???
- Uni of observation is an interaction, not a person!

---
# LLM-Based Coding of Names
.push-left[
<img src="./media/HuggingFace_2.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.font80[

``` r
library(text)

## 3. Predict ethnicity of first names.
##############################################
zeroshot_ethnic <- text::textZeroShot(
  # The list of first names to be predicted.
  sequences = vornamen,
  # The possible origins for the first names.
  candidate_labels = c("deutsch", "türkisch",
                       "arabisch oder muslimisch", 
                       "ostasiatisch oder chinesisch",
                       "osteuropäisch oder slavisch"),
  # Predict multiple origins for each first name.
  multi_label = TRUE,
  # The template for the hypothesis that is tested.
  hypothesis_template = "Dieser Vorname klingt {}.",
  # The model that is used to predict the gender.
  model = "Sahajtomar/German_Zeroshot")
```
]]

.push-right[
<img src="Utrecht25_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
  
---
 # 10 Trust Games per Participant

.push-left[
- *Majority participants*: 
  + 3 games with mainstream players.
  + .backgrnote[7 games with immigrant origin players.]

- *Immigrant origin participants*: 
  + 7 games with mainstream players.
  + .backgrnote[3 games with immigrant origin players.]

`$\rightarrow$` Observe **actual €** sent to others.

<table class="table" style="color: black; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> Name </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;"> % </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> East-European
sounding name </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 1828 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 27.2 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> German
sounding name </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 1716 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 25.6 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Muslim
sounding name </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 1471 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 21.9 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> East-Asian
sounding name </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 539 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.0 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Turkish
sounding name </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 301 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.5 </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Other </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 854 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 12.7 </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

]

.push-right[
<img src="media/Sender-en.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="Utrecht25_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

???
What did their game partner's entrust them?
- Now focus on games with mainstream partners.

---
# Actual Trust Discrimination .font60[By game partner]

.left-column[
`$$\text{Act Discr}_{ij} = \bar{€}_{j\text{(Germ. name)}} - €_{ij}$$`
]

.right-column[
<img src="Utrecht25_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
class: clear
# After the 10 Games .font60[Expectations to be discriminated]

---
class: clear
# Actual vs. Expected Trust Discrimination

---
class: clear
# Actual vs. Expected Trust Discrimination

---
class: clear
# Actual vs. Expected Trust Discrimination

---
class: clear
.left-column[
<br>
.font150[**Predictors of Misexpected <br> Trust Discrimination**]
]

.right-column[
<img src="media/Report_1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
---
class: clear
# The Cost of Misexpected Trust Discrimination

.push-right[
<img src="Utrecht25_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-29-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.push-left[
<img src="Utrecht25_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.center[
`$(-0.766€  + -0.401€)  \times 3 \times \frac{2}{3} \times 2 = -4.7€$`

`$\frac{-4.7€}{20€} = \color{red}{-23.5\%}$`

]]

---
class: inverse middle center

# Mis*perceived Personal* Discrimination

.push-left[
<br>
<br>
<img src="https://www.minnisandsmallets.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/AdobeStock_145971794-scaled.jpg" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.push-right[
<br>
<br>
.content-box-green[
**Claim 6**: Immigrant minority members tend to over-interpret ambiguous signals as evidence of discrimination.

**Claim 7**: This seems to happen particularly among those with prior experiences of discrimination.
]]

---
# Follow-up Experiment .font60[Disadvantage cue]

**On average, your ten game partners sent and thereby entrusted 6 € to you.**

In addition, your ten game partners played trust games with other 68 more participants. 25 of these other participants had names that sound typically German.

Below you see a selection of three of these participants with names that sound typically German.

**On average, your game partners sent and thereby entrusted 8 € to these three persons:**

Annegret from Hamburg

Klaus from Berlin

Hartmut from München

**The three have thus received 2 € more than you. How do you rate this result?**

<select class='webex-select'><option value='blank'></option><option value='answer'>My name played a role: I was disadvantaged by my game partners.</option><option value=''>My name did not play a role: I was simply unlucky</option></select>

---
# Follow-Up Experiment .font60[Advantage cue]

**On average, your ten game partners sent and thereby entrusted 8 € to you.**

In addition, your ten game partners played trust games with other 68 more participants. 25 of these other participants had names that sound typically German.

Below you see a selection of three of these participants with names that sound typically German.

**On average, your game partners sent and thereby entrusted 6 € to these three persons:**

Annegret from Hamburg

Klaus from Berlin

Hartmut from München

**The three have thus received 2 € less than you. How do you rate this result?**

<select class='webex-select'><option value='blank'></option><option value='answer'>My name played a role: I was advantaged by my game partners.</option><option value=''>My name did not play a role: I was simply lucky.</option></select>

---
# Follow-up Experiment .font60[Equality cue]

**On average, your ten game partners sent and thereby entrusted 7 € to you.**

In addition, your ten game partners played trust games with other 68 more participants. 25 of these other participants had names that sound typically German.

Below you see a selection of three of these participants with names that sound typically German.

**On average, your game partners sent and thereby entrusted 7 € to these three persons:**

Annegret from Hamburg

Klaus from Berlin

Hartmut from München

**The three have thus received the same amount as. How do you rate this result?**

<select class='webex-select'><option value='blank'></option><option value='answer'>My name played a role: In this case I nevertheless received the same.</option><option value=''>My name did not play a role: I was treated equally by my game partners.</option></select>

---
# My Name Played a Role ...

---
class:  clear

.left-column[
<br>
.font150[**Effect of Disadvantage Signal Compared to Baseline**]
]

.right-column[
<img src="media/Report_3.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
layout: false
# Conclusion .font70[for now ...]

.push-left[
<br>

- Because discrimination is often concealed, people struggle to accurately generalize their experiences to new situations and over-interpret signals of disadvantage.

- This, in itself, results in additional downstream mental and economic costs.

<br>
.font140[.center[
.alert[Thank you for your attention!]
]]]

.push-right[.content-box-green[
**Claim 1**: Mainstream majority members tend to overperceive the prevalence of discrimination.

**Claim 2**: Lack of awareness is not the reason for low support for anti-discrimination legislation.

**Claim 3**: Typically, immigrant minority members do not expect to be discriminated, but when they do, their expectations tend to be inaccurate.

**Claim 4**: People tend to over-generalize from prior experiences of discrimination.

**Claim 5**: This over-generalization is costly.

**Claim 6**: Minority members tend to over-interpret ambiguous signals as evidence of discrimination.

**Claim 7**: This seems to happen particularly among those with prior experiences of discrimination.
]]

---
layout: false
count: false
# References

.push-left[.font70[
Haaland, I. and C. Roth (2023). "Beliefs About Racial Discrimination and Support for Pro-Black
Policies". In: _Review of Economics and Statistics_, pp. 40-53.

Østergaard, A. (2020). _Detektor: Efter racismedebat – Dansk Folkeparti anerkender
forskelsbehandling_.

Schaeffer, M., K. Krakowski, A. Romarri, et al. (2024). "Far-right Electoral Success Exacerbates
Administrative Discrimination Against Minorities: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy". In:
_Unpublished manuscript_.

Schaerer, M., C. du Plessis, M. H. B. Nguyen, et al. (2023). "On the trajectory of discrimination: A
meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring
decisions". In: _Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes_, p. 104280.
]]

.push-right[.font70[

]]