Far-right Electoral Success 

 Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination 

 Against Minorities
Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy
Krzysztof Krakowski, Dina Rosenberg, Alessio Romarri, and Merlin Schaeffer
2024-06-13
1 / 23

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Source: Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin (2020)

2 / 23

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

3 / 23

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Source: Romarri (2020)

4 / 23

Public Administrators Entrusted with Impartiality, but ...

Source: Olsen, Kyhse-Andersen, and Moynihan (2022)

Source: Hemker and Rink (2017)

5 / 23

Are Public Administrators 
 also Susceptibile to the Influence of 
 Far-Right Electoral Successes?6 / 23

Three Mechanisms (beyond scope the of this study)

Recruitment: Appointment of like-minded individuals to the administration,
Cream Skimming: Strategically allocate resources to force administrators to prioritize which citizens to serve (Guul, 2023; Bell and Jilke, 2024),
Erosion of Norms: Electoral success emboldens administrators to exercise discretion in ways that disadvantage minorities (Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin, 2020).

7 / 23

A Field Experiment

8 / 23

A Field Experiment

Research assistants call 200
Italian "Azienda Sanitaria Locale"
to ask for a general medical practitioner.

Two students with
West-African accent

Two students with
Native-Italian accent

8 / 23

Interview Guideline

9 / 23

Discrimination in Access to Basic Healthcare

Note: Raw data and associated densities by caller accent alongside OLS estimates of their mean difference $Δ$ (95% CIs in brackets), covariate-adjusted for municipality fixed effects, gender of the caller, as well as date and time of the calls. n = 760 telephone calls (resp. 372 & 388) to 247 municipalities.

10 / 23

Electoral Wins of Far-Right Mayors

Source: Romarri (2020)

11 / 23

Far-Right Electoral Wins and access to basic healthcare

Note: Denials alongside quadratic fits for n = 114 municipalities that lie within a "bandwidth" of $\pm 5 %$ of the electoral threshold of a far-right victory

12 / 23

Exacerbated Discrimination A Diff-in-RD design

Note: Bias-corrected non-parametric regression-discontinuity estimates with optimized bandwidth (Calonico, Cattaneo, and Farrell, 2020) by caller accent alongside their $Δ (RD)$ estimates (95% BCa CIs based on 5,000 bootstraps in brackets). Estimates are covariate-adjusted for municipalities' %foreign born, economic prosperity, logged population density, educational qualification of the population, altitude, as well as gender of the caller and date and time of the calls. Effect sizes are expressed in standard deviations of the respective outcome in the control group.

13 / 23

Conclusion

Far-right electoral success threatens equal access to essential public services and thus potentially undermines public trust in government institutions.

Further research:

Test mechanisms through which far-right politics influence discriminatory practices.
Explore the generalizability of these findings to other sectors and countries.
Develop and evaluate interventions to mitigate discrimination in public services under far-right leadership.

Bell, E. and S. Jilke (2024). "Racial Discrimination and Administrative Burden in Access to Public Services". In: Scientific Reports, p. 1071.

Bursztyn, L., G. Egorov, and S. Fiorin (2020). "From Extreme to Mainstream: The Erosion of Social Norms". In: American Economic Review, pp. 3522-3548.

Calonico, S., M. D. Cattaneo, and M. H. Farrell (2020). "Optimal bandwidth choice for robust bias-corrected inference in regression discontinuity designs". In: The Econometrics Journal, pp. 192-210.

Guul, T. S. (2023). "Political Solutions to Discriminatory Behavior". In: American Political Science Review, pp. 719-733.

Hemker, J. and A. Rink (2017). "Multiple Dimensions of Bureaucratic Discrimination: Evidence from German Welfare Offices". In: American Journal of Political Science, pp. 786-803.

Olsen, A. L., J. H. Kyhse-Andersen, and D. Moynihan (2022). "The Unequal Distribution of Opportunity: A National Audit Study of Bureaucratic Discrimination in Primary School Access". In: American Journal of Political Science, pp. 587-603.

Romarri, A. (2020). Do Far-Right Mayors Increase the Probability of Hate Crimes? Evidence From Italy. SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3506811. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network.

14 / 23

Appendix15 / 23

Post Pre-reg data

16 / 23

Online as "Success" or "Don't Know"

17 / 23

Second round Elections
 
Decline

Questions

Diff-in-RD:

2.461

-0.346

     Ital. 
    W. African 
     Ital.  
    W. African  
  
    RD-Robust 
    0.631* 
    3.092* 
    0.360 
    0.014 
  
    (0.345) 
    (1.601) 
    (0.443) 
    (0.444) 
  
    Bandwidth 
    4.796 
    3.052 
    3.627 
    4.524 
  
    Effective.cases 
    43  vs  51 
    25  vs  44 
    33  vs  44 
    43  vs  57 
  
    Overall.cases 
    89  vs  113 
    104  vs  118 
    95  vs  118 
    107  vs  119 
  
 * p 

18 / 23

	Decline	Questions
RD-Robust	0.631*	3.092*	0.360	0.014
	(0.345)	(1.601)	(0.443)	(0.444)
Bandwidth	4.796	3.052	3.627	4.524
Effective.cases	43 vs 51	25 vs 44	33 vs 44	43 vs 57
Overall.cases	89 vs 113	104 vs 118	95 vs 118	107 vs 119
* p

Binary decline outcome

$Binary version 1, "(Probably) Yes" = {\begin{cases} 1, & 1 or 2 \\ 0 & 3 to 5 \end{cases}$

(Probably) Yes		Native-Italian accent	West-African accent
0	N	1	50
	% col	0.3	12.3
1	N	390	356
	% col	99.7	87.7

$Binary version 2, "(Probably) No" = {\begin{cases} 1, & 5 or 4 \\ 0 & 1 to 3 \end{cases}$

(Probably) No		Native-Italian accent	West-African accent
0	N	391	394
	% col	100.0	97.0
1	N	0	12
	% col	0.0	3.0

19 / 23

Binary decline outcome Discrimination
 
    (Probably) Yes 
    (Probably) No 
  
    West-African Accent 
    −0.096*** 
    0.023** 
  
    (0.020) 
    (0.009) 
  
    Gender: Male 
    0.042* 
    −0.001 
  
    (0.018) 
    (0.009) 
  
    Num.Obs. 
    760 
    760 
  
    R2 
    0.407 
    0.471 
  
    BIC 
    −327.6 
    −1524.3 
  
 + p 

20 / 23

	(Probably) Yes	(Probably) No
West-African Accent	−0.096***	0.023**
	(0.020)	(0.009)
Gender: Male	0.042*	−0.001
	(0.018)	(0.009)
Num.Obs.	760	760
R2	0.407	0.471
BIC	−327.6	−1524.3
+ p

Binary decline outcome ΔRDΔRD
 
(Probably) Yes

(Probably) No

Diff-in-RD:

-0.129

     Ital. 
    W. African 
    W. African  
  
    RD-Robust 
    0.002 
    −0.127* 
    0.060 
  
    (0.001) 
    (0.073) 
    (0.037) 
  
    Bandwidth 
    5.521 
    3.358 
    2.841 
  
    Effective.cases 
    55  vs  135 
    32  vs  88 
    28  vs  81 
  
    Overall.cases 
    110  vs  262 
    126  vs  262 
    126  vs  262 
  
 * p 

21 / 23

	(Probably) Yes	(Probably) No
RD-Robust	0.002	−0.127*	0.060
	(0.001)	(0.073)	(0.037)
Bandwidth	5.521	3.358	2.841
Effective.cases	55 vs 135	32 vs 88	28 vs 81
Overall.cases	110 vs 262	126 vs 262	126 vs 262
* p

The Controls

# PCA to reduce dimensions of covariates and prohibit multicollinearity
#######################################################################
## Economy
(pca_econ <- cntrls %>% prcomp(
  formula = ~  sh_unemployed_2011 + sh_agriculture_epl_2011 + 
    sh_industry_epl_2011 + sh_commerce_epl_2011 + 
    sh_service_epl_2011 + sh_cars_2017,
  data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
  scale = TRUE))
cntrls$pca_econ <- -pca_econ$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()
## Educational qualification of pop
(pca_edu <- cntrls %>% prcomp(
  formula = ~ sh_illiterate_2011 + sh_sec_education_2011 + 
    sh_students_2011 + sh_university_enrolled_2016,
  data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
  scale = TRUE))
cntrls$pca_edu <- -pca_edu$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()
## Combine with further controls
cntrls <- cntrls %>%
  mutate(
    sh_foreing_16 = sh_foreing_16 %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # Share foreign Born in 2016
    pop2011 = (pop2011 / Superficieterritorialekmqal) %>% log() %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # logged population density
    Altitudinedelcentrometri = Altitudinedelcentrometri %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()) # Altitude

22 / 23

Balanced Confounders at the Threshold

	% Foreign born	Population	Altitude	Economy	Educational distribution
RD-Robust	0.002	−0.155	0.304	−0.710	−0.809
	(0.568)	(0.422)	(0.435)	(0.407)	(0.475)
Bandwidth	4.057	3.806	6.374	2.846	5.442
Effective.cases	28 vs 66	28 vs 63	43 vs 100	19 vs 54	38 vs 94
Overall.cases	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186
* p

Note: Results are based on non-linear sharp RD estimates with triangular kernel, bandwidth selected by mserd, cluster-robust bias-corrected inference asu suggested by Calonico, Cattaneo, and Farrell (2020).

23 / 23

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Tile View: Overview of Slides

Far-right Electoral Success 

 Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination 

 Against Minorities
Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy
Krzysztof Krakowski, Dina Rosenberg, Alessio Romarri, and Merlin Schaeffer
2024-06-13
1 / 23

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Source: Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin (2020)

2 / 23

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

3 / 23

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Source: Romarri (2020)

4 / 23

Public Administrators Entrusted with Impartiality, but ...

Source: Olsen, Kyhse-Andersen, and Moynihan (2022)

Source: Hemker and Rink (2017)

5 / 23

Are Public Administrators 
 also Susceptibile to the Influence of 
 Far-Right Electoral Successes?6 / 23

Three Mechanisms (beyond scope the of this study)

Recruitment: Appointment of like-minded individuals to the administration,
Cream Skimming: Strategically allocate resources to force administrators to prioritize which citizens to serve (Guul, 2023; Bell and Jilke, 2024),
Erosion of Norms: Electoral success emboldens administrators to exercise discretion in ways that disadvantage minorities (Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin, 2020).

7 / 23

A Field Experiment

8 / 23

A Field Experiment

Research assistants call 200
Italian "Azienda Sanitaria Locale"
to ask for a general medical practitioner.

Two students with
West-African accent

Two students with
Native-Italian accent

8 / 23

Interview Guideline

9 / 23

Discrimination in Access to Basic Healthcare

10 / 23

Electoral Wins of Far-Right Mayors

Source: Romarri (2020)

11 / 23

Far-Right Electoral Wins and access to basic healthcare

Note: Denials alongside quadratic fits for n = 114 municipalities that lie within a "bandwidth" of $\pm 5 %$ of the electoral threshold of a far-right victory

12 / 23

Exacerbated Discrimination A Diff-in-RD design

13 / 23

Conclusion

Far-right electoral success threatens equal access to essential public services and thus potentially undermines public trust in government institutions.

Further research:

Test mechanisms through which far-right politics influence discriminatory practices.
Explore the generalizability of these findings to other sectors and countries.
Develop and evaluate interventions to mitigate discrimination in public services under far-right leadership.

Bell, E. and S. Jilke (2024). "Racial Discrimination and Administrative Burden in Access to Public Services". In: Scientific Reports, p. 1071.

Bursztyn, L., G. Egorov, and S. Fiorin (2020). "From Extreme to Mainstream: The Erosion of Social Norms". In: American Economic Review, pp. 3522-3548.

Guul, T. S. (2023). "Political Solutions to Discriminatory Behavior". In: American Political Science Review, pp. 719-733.

Hemker, J. and A. Rink (2017). "Multiple Dimensions of Bureaucratic Discrimination: Evidence from German Welfare Offices". In: American Journal of Political Science, pp. 786-803.

Romarri, A. (2020). Do Far-Right Mayors Increase the Probability of Hate Crimes? Evidence From Italy. SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3506811. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network.

14 / 23

Appendix15 / 23

Post Pre-reg data

16 / 23

Online as "Success" or "Don't Know"

17 / 23

Second round Elections
 
Decline

Questions

Diff-in-RD:

2.461

-0.346

     Ital. 
    W. African 
     Ital.  
    W. African  
  
    RD-Robust 
    0.631* 
    3.092* 
    0.360 
    0.014 
  
    (0.345) 
    (1.601) 
    (0.443) 
    (0.444) 
  
    Bandwidth 
    4.796 
    3.052 
    3.627 
    4.524 
  
    Effective.cases 
    43  vs  51 
    25  vs  44 
    33  vs  44 
    43  vs  57 
  
    Overall.cases 
    89  vs  113 
    104  vs  118 
    95  vs  118 
    107  vs  119 
  
 * p 

18 / 23

	Decline	Questions
RD-Robust	0.631*	3.092*	0.360	0.014
	(0.345)	(1.601)	(0.443)	(0.444)
Bandwidth	4.796	3.052	3.627	4.524
Effective.cases	43 vs 51	25 vs 44	33 vs 44	43 vs 57
Overall.cases	89 vs 113	104 vs 118	95 vs 118	107 vs 119
* p

Binary decline outcome

$Binary version 1, "(Probably) Yes" = {\begin{cases} 1, & 1 or 2 \\ 0 & 3 to 5 \end{cases}$

(Probably) Yes		Native-Italian accent	West-African accent
0	N	1	50
	% col	0.3	12.3
1	N	390	356
	% col	99.7	87.7

$Binary version 2, "(Probably) No" = {\begin{cases} 1, & 5 or 4 \\ 0 & 1 to 3 \end{cases}$

(Probably) No		Native-Italian accent	West-African accent
0	N	391	394
	% col	100.0	97.0
1	N	0	12
	% col	0.0	3.0

19 / 23

Binary decline outcome Discrimination
 
    (Probably) Yes 
    (Probably) No 
  
    West-African Accent 
    −0.096*** 
    0.023** 
  
    (0.020) 
    (0.009) 
  
    Gender: Male 
    0.042* 
    −0.001 
  
    (0.018) 
    (0.009) 
  
    Num.Obs. 
    760 
    760 
  
    R2 
    0.407 
    0.471 
  
    BIC 
    −327.6 
    −1524.3 
  
 + p 

20 / 23

	(Probably) Yes	(Probably) No
West-African Accent	−0.096***	0.023**
	(0.020)	(0.009)
Gender: Male	0.042*	−0.001
	(0.018)	(0.009)
Num.Obs.	760	760
R2	0.407	0.471
BIC	−327.6	−1524.3
+ p

Binary decline outcome ΔRDΔRD
 
(Probably) Yes

(Probably) No

Diff-in-RD:

-0.129

     Ital. 
    W. African 
    W. African  
  
    RD-Robust 
    0.002 
    −0.127* 
    0.060 
  
    (0.001) 
    (0.073) 
    (0.037) 
  
    Bandwidth 
    5.521 
    3.358 
    2.841 
  
    Effective.cases 
    55  vs  135 
    32  vs  88 
    28  vs  81 
  
    Overall.cases 
    110  vs  262 
    126  vs  262 
    126  vs  262 
  
 * p 

21 / 23

	(Probably) Yes	(Probably) No
RD-Robust	0.002	−0.127*	0.060
	(0.001)	(0.073)	(0.037)
Bandwidth	5.521	3.358	2.841
Effective.cases	55 vs 135	32 vs 88	28 vs 81
Overall.cases	110 vs 262	126 vs 262	126 vs 262
* p

The Controls

# PCA to reduce dimensions of covariates and prohibit multicollinearity
#######################################################################
## Economy
(pca_econ <- cntrls %>% prcomp(
  formula = ~  sh_unemployed_2011 + sh_agriculture_epl_2011 + 
    sh_industry_epl_2011 + sh_commerce_epl_2011 + 
    sh_service_epl_2011 + sh_cars_2017,
  data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
  scale = TRUE))
cntrls$pca_econ <- -pca_econ$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()
## Educational qualification of pop
(pca_edu <- cntrls %>% prcomp(
  formula = ~ sh_illiterate_2011 + sh_sec_education_2011 + 
    sh_students_2011 + sh_university_enrolled_2016,
  data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
  scale = TRUE))
cntrls$pca_edu <- -pca_edu$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()
## Combine with further controls
cntrls <- cntrls %>%
  mutate(
    sh_foreing_16 = sh_foreing_16 %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # Share foreign Born in 2016
    pop2011 = (pop2011 / Superficieterritorialekmqal) %>% log() %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # logged population density
    Altitudinedelcentrometri = Altitudinedelcentrometri %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()) # Altitude

22 / 23

Balanced Confounders at the Threshold

	% Foreign born	Population	Altitude	Economy	Educational distribution
RD-Robust	0.002	−0.155	0.304	−0.710	−0.809
	(0.568)	(0.422)	(0.435)	(0.407)	(0.475)
Bandwidth	4.057	3.806	6.374	2.846	5.442
Effective.cases	28 vs 66	28 vs 63	43 vs 100	19 vs 54	38 vs 94
Overall.cases	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186
* p

23 / 23

	Decline		Questions
Diff-in-RD:	2.461		-0.346
	Ital.	W. African	Ital.	W. African
RD-Robust	0.631*	3.092*	0.360	0.014
	(0.345)	(1.601)	(0.443)	(0.444)
Bandwidth	4.796	3.052	3.627	4.524
Effective.cases	43 vs 51	25 vs 44	33 vs 44	43 vs 57
Overall.cases	89 vs 113	104 vs 118	95 vs 118	107 vs 119
* p

	(Probably) Yes		(Probably) No
Diff-in-RD:	-0.129
	Ital.	W. African	W. African
RD-Robust	0.002	−0.127*	0.060
	(0.001)	(0.073)	(0.037)
Bandwidth	5.521	3.358	2.841
Effective.cases	55 vs 135	32 vs 88	28 vs 81
Overall.cases	110 vs 262	126 vs 262	126 vs 262
* p

Far-right Electoral Success Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination Against Minorities

Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy

Krzysztof Krakowski, Dina Rosenberg, Alessio Romarri, and Merlin Schaeffer

2024-06-13

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Public Administrators Entrusted with Impartiality, but ...

Are Public Administrators also Susceptibile to the Influence of Far-Right Electoral Successes?

Three Mechanisms (beyond scope the of this study)

A Field Experiment

A Field Experiment

Interview Guideline

Discrimination in Access to Basic Healthcare

Electoral Wins of Far-Right Mayors

Far-Right Electoral Wins and access to basic healthcare

Exacerbated Discrimination A Diff-in-RD design

Conclusion

Appendix

Post Pre-reg data

Online as "Success" or "Don't Know"

Second round Elections

Binary decline outcome

Binary decline outcome Discrimination

Binary decline outcome ΔRDΔRD

The Controls

Balanced Confounders at the Threshold

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Help

Far-right Electoral Success Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination Against Minorities

Far-right Electoral Success Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination Against Minorities

Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy

Krzysztof Krakowski, Dina Rosenberg, Alessio Romarri, and Merlin Schaeffer

2024-06-13

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Public Administrators Entrusted with Impartiality, but ...

Are Public Administrators also Susceptibile to the Influence of Far-Right Electoral Successes?

Three Mechanisms (beyond scope the of this study)

A Field Experiment

A Field Experiment

Interview Guideline

Discrimination in Access to Basic Healthcare

Electoral Wins of Far-Right Mayors

Far-Right Electoral Wins and access to basic healthcare

Exacerbated Discrimination A Diff-in-RD design

Conclusion

Appendix

Post Pre-reg data

Online as "Success" or "Don't Know"

Second round Elections

Binary decline outcome

Binary decline outcome Discrimination

Binary decline outcome ΔRDΔRD

The Controls

Balanced Confounders at the Threshold

Far-right Electoral Success

Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination

Against Minorities

Are Public Administrators
also Susceptibile to the Influence of
Far-Right Electoral Successes?

Binary decline outcome $Δ_{RD}$

Far-right Electoral Success

Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination

Against Minorities

Are Public Administrators
also Susceptibile to the Influence of
Far-Right Electoral Successes?

Binary decline outcome $Δ_{RD}$