class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Far-right Electoral Success <br><br> Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination <br><br> Against Minorities ] .subtitle[ ## Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy ] .author[ ### Krzysztof Krakowski, Dina Rosenberg, Alessio Romarri, and Merlin Schaeffer ] .date[ ### 2024-05-29 ] --- layout: true # Far-right Electoral Wins .font70[Increase Racism] .left-column[ <img src="https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107409158-17146029902024-05-01t222932z_1159614980_rc2xh7a5m73o_rtrmadp_0_usa-election-trump.jpeg?v=1714650301&w=1920&h=1080" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOH1FlhWUAIqbN1.jpg:large" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- .right-column[ <img src="./media/Bursztyn.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .backgrnote[.center[*Source:* Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin (2020)]] ] --- .right-column[ <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZIn0ymXgAAOopA.jpg:large" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- .right-column[ <img src="./media/Romarri.png" width="75%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .backgrnote[.center[*Source:* Romarri (2020)]] ] --- class: clear layout: false # Public Administrators .font70[Entrusted with Impartiality, but ...] .push-left[ <img src="./media/Olsen.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .backgrnote[.center[*Source:* Olsen, Kyhse-Andersen, and Moynihan (2022)]] ] .push-right[ <img src="./media/Anselm.png" width="96%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .backgrnote[.center[*Source:* Hemker and Rink (2017)]] ] --- class: inverse middle center # Are Public Administrators <br> also Susceptibile to the Influence of <br> Far-Right Electoral Successes? --- class: clear # Three Mechanisms .font70[(beyond scope the of this study)] .font120[ 1. **Recruitment**: Appointment of like-minded individuals to the administration, 2. **Cream Skimming**: Strategically allocate resources to force administrators to prioritize which citizens to serve (Guul, 2023; Bell and Jilke, 2024), 3. **Erosion of Norms**: Electoral success emboldens administrators to exercise discretion in ways that disadvantage minorities (Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin, 2020). ] --- layout: false # A Field Experiment .push-left[ <img src="https://www.cos.io/hs-fs/hubfs/badges_stacked.original.png?width=834&name=badges_stacked.original.png" width="35%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="media/OSF.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] -- .push-right[ .center[.font110[Research assistants call 200 <br>Italian "Azienda Sanitaria Locale"<br>to ask for a general medical practitioner.]] .push-left[ <img src="media/Black_Female_Caller2.png" width="60%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="media/Black_Male_Caller.png" width="60%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .center[.font90[Two students with <br> West-African accent]] ] .push-right[ <img src="media/White_Female_Caller.png" width="60%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="media/White_Male_Caller.png" width="60%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .center[.font90[Two students with <br> native Italian accent]] ] ] --- # Interview Guideline <img src="media/healthcare_scenarios_ENG.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: clear # Discrimination in Access to Basic Healthcare <img src="INAS_files/figure-html/Figure1-1.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .backgrnote[.center[*Note:* Panel A and B report raw data and associated densities. Panel C displays OLS estimates with 90 and 95% CI adjusted for municipality fixed effects. <br> n = 863 telephone calls (resp. 417 & 446) to 262 municipalities.]] --- # Electoral Wins of Far-Right Mayors <img src="media/Map_Italy.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .backgrnote[.center[*Source*: Romarri (2020)]] --- class: clear # .font80[Far-Right Electoral Success and Access to Basic Healthcare] <img src="INAS_files/figure-html/Figure2a-1.png" width="85%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .backgrnote[.center[*Note:* n = 359 municipalities that lie within a "bandwidth" of ±5% of the electoral threshold of a far-right victory]] --- class: clear # Balanced Confounders at the Threshold <table style="NAborder-bottom: 0; color: black; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; font-size: 18px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="table table"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> % Foreign born </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> Population </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> Altitude </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> Economy </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> Educational distribution </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> RD-Robust </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.002 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> −0.155 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.304 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> −0.710 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> −0.809 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.568) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.422) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.435) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.407) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.475) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Bandwidth </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 4.057 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 3.806 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 6.374 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 2.846 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 5.442 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Effective.cases </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 28 vs 66 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 28 vs 63 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 43 vs 100 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 19 vs 54 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 38 vs 94 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Overall.cases </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 80 vs 186 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 80 vs 186 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 80 vs 186 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 80 vs 186 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 80 vs 186 </td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot><tr><td style="padding: 0; " colspan="100%"> <sup></sup> * p </td></tr></tfoot> </table> .backgrnote[.center[*Note:* Results are based on non-linear sharp RD estimates with triangular kernel, bandwidth selected by mserd, cluster-robust bias-corrected inference asu suggested by Calonico, Cattaneo, and Farrell (2020).]] --- # A Diff-in-RD Design .left-column[ <img src="INAS_files/figure-html/Figure2b-1.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] .right-column[ <img src="media/PNAS.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .backgrnote[.center[*Note:* Results are based on non-linear sharp RD estimates with triangular kernel, bandwidth selected by mserd, cluster-robust bias-corrected inference asu suggested by Calonico, Cattaneo, and Farrell (2020). Adjusted for municipality-level socio-economic deprivation, age structure, educational structure, population density, and altitude. BCa confidence intervals are based on 2,000 bootstraps.]]] --- # Conclusion <br> .push-left[ .content-box-blue[.center[ Far-right electoral success threatens equal access to essential public services and thus potentially undermines public trust in government institutions. ]] .center[.font110[**Further research:**]] + **Test mechanisms** through which far-right politics influence discriminatory practices. + **Explore the generalizability** of these findings to other sectors and countries. + **Develop and evaluate interventions** to mitigate discrimination in public services under far-right leadership. ] .push-right[ .font50[ Bell, E. and S. Jilke (2024). "Racial Discrimination and Administrative Burden in Access to Public Services". In: _Scientific Reports_, p. 1071. Bursztyn, L., G. Egorov, and S. Fiorin (2020). "From Extreme to Mainstream: The Erosion of Social Norms". In: _American Economic Review_, pp. 3522-3548. Calonico, S., M. D. Cattaneo, and M. H. Farrell (2020). "Optimal bandwidth choice for robust bias-corrected inference in regression discontinuity designs". In: _The Econometrics Journal_, pp. 192-210. Guul, T. S. (2023). "Political Solutions to Discriminatory Behavior". In: _American Political Science Review_, pp. 719-733. Hemker, J. and A. Rink (2017). "Multiple Dimensions of Bureaucratic Discrimination: Evidence from German Welfare Offices". In: _American Journal of Political Science_, pp. 786-803. Olsen, A. L., J. H. Kyhse-Andersen, and D. Moynihan (2022). "The Unequal Distribution of Opportunity: A National Audit Study of Bureaucratic Discrimination in Primary School Access". In: _American Journal of Political Science_, pp. 587-603. Romarri, A. (2020). _Do Far-Right Mayors Increase the Probability of Hate Crimes? Evidence From Italy_. SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3506811. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network. ]] --- class: clear inverse middle center # Appendix --- # Second round Elections <table style="NAborder-bottom: 0; color: black; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="table table"> <thead> <tr> <th style="empty-cells: hide;border-bottom:hidden;" colspan="1"></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Decline</div></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Questions</div></th> </tr> <tr> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;text-align: center; font-weight: bold; " colspan="1"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Diff-in-RD:</div></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;text-align: center; font-weight: bold; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">2.374</div></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;text-align: center; font-weight: bold; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">-0.001</div></th> </tr> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> Ital. </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> W. African </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> Ital. </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> W. African </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> RD-Robust </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.693+ </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 3.067+ </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.132 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.132 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.356) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (1.590) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.413) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.544) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Bandwidth </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 3.267 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 2.996 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 3.552 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 4.709 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Effective.cases </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 32 vs 40 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 28 vs 45 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 34 vs 45 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 51 vs 61 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Overall.cases </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 95 vs 118 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 111 vs 122 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 101 vs 123 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 121 vs 128 </td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot><tr><td style="padding: 0; " colspan="100%"> <sup></sup> + p </td></tr></tfoot> </table> --- # Binary decline outcome .push-left[.font80[ `$$\text{Binary version 1, "(Probably) Yes"}= \begin{cases} 1, & 1 \text{ or } 2 \\ 0 & 3 \text{ to } 5 \end{cases}$$` <table class="table table" style="color: black; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> (Probably) Yes </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Native Italian accent </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> West-African accent </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> N </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> % col </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12.3 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> N </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 391 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 356 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> % col </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 99.7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 87.7 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ]] .push-right[.font80[ `$$\text{Binary version 2, "(Probably) No"}= \begin{cases} 1, & 5 \text{ or } 4 \\ 0 & 1 \text{ to } 3 \end{cases}$$` <table class="table table" style="color: black; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> (Probably) No </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Native Italian accent </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> West-African accent </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> N </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 392 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 394 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> % col </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 100.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 97.0 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> N </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> % col </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ]] --- # Binary decline outcome .font70[Discrimination] <table style="NAborder-bottom: 0; color: black; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="table"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> (Probably) Yes </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> (Probably) No </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> West-African Accent </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> −0.112*** </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.027** </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> (0.019) </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> (0.009) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Gender: Male </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.053** </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.000 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.018) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.008) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Num.Obs. </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 798 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 798 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> R2 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.375 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.398 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> BIC </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> −337.4 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> −1481.8 </td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot><tr><td style="padding: 0; " colspan="100%"> <sup></sup> + p </td></tr></tfoot> </table> --- # Binary decline outcome `\(\Delta_{\text{RD}}\)` <table style="NAborder-bottom: 0; color: black; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="table table"> <thead> <tr> <th style="empty-cells: hide;border-bottom:hidden;" colspan="1"></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">(Probably) Yes</div></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="1"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">(Probably) No</div></th> </tr> <tr> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;text-align: center; font-weight: bold; " colspan="1"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Diff-in-RD:</div></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;text-align: center; font-weight: bold; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">-0.134</div></th> <th style="empty-cells: hide;border-bottom:hidden;" colspan="1"></th> </tr> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> Ital. </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> W. African </th> <th style="text-align:center;"> W. African </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> RD-Robust </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.001 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> −0.133+ </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 0.086* </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.001) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.076) </td> <td style="text-align:center;box-shadow: 0px 1.5px"> (0.044) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Bandwidth </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 5.384 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 3.568 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 3.031 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Effective.cases </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 55 vs 138 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 35 vs 95 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 31 vs 87 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Overall.cases </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 117 vs 275 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 133 vs 273 </td> <td style="text-align:center;"> 133 vs 273 </td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot><tr><td style="padding: 0; " colspan="100%"> <sup></sup> + p </td></tr></tfoot> </table> --- # The Controls ``` r # PCA to reduce dimensions of covariates and prohibit multicollinearity ####################################################################### ## Economy (pca_econ <- cntrls %>% prcomp( formula = ~ sh_unemployed_2011 + sh_agriculture_epl_2011 + sh_industry_epl_2011 + sh_commerce_epl_2011 + sh_service_epl_2011 + sh_cars_2017, data = ., na.action = na.exclude, scale = TRUE)) cntrls$pca_econ <- -pca_econ$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric() ## Educational qualification of pop (pca_edu <- cntrls %>% prcomp( formula = ~ sh_illiterate_2011 + sh_sec_education_2011 + sh_students_2011 + sh_university_enrolled_2016, data = ., na.action = na.exclude, scale = TRUE)) cntrls$pca_edu <- -pca_edu$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric() ## Combine with further controls cntrls <- cntrls %>% mutate( sh_foreing_16 = sh_foreing_16 %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # Share foreign Born in 2016 pop2011 = (pop2011 / Superficieterritorialekmqal) %>% log() %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # logged population density Altitudinedelcentrometri = Altitudinedelcentrometri %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()) # Altitude ```