Far-right Electoral Success 

 Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination 

 Against Minorities
Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy
Krzysztof Krakowski, Dina Rosenberg, Alessio Romarri, and Merlin Schaeffer
2024-05-29
1 / 21

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Source: Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin (2020)

2 / 21

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

3 / 21

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Source: Romarri (2020)

4 / 21

Public Administrators Entrusted with Impartiality, but ...

Source: Olsen, Kyhse-Andersen, and Moynihan (2022)

Source: Hemker and Rink (2017)

5 / 21

Are Public Administrators 
 also Susceptibile to the Influence of 
 Far-Right Electoral Successes?6 / 21

Three Mechanisms (beyond scope the of this study)

Recruitment: Appointment of like-minded individuals to the administration,
Cream Skimming: Strategically allocate resources to force administrators to prioritize which citizens to serve (Guul, 2023; Bell and Jilke, 2024),
Erosion of Norms: Electoral success emboldens administrators to exercise discretion in ways that disadvantage minorities (Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin, 2020).

7 / 21

A Field Experiment

8 / 21

A Field Experiment

Research assistants call 200
Italian "Azienda Sanitaria Locale"
to ask for a general medical practitioner.

Two students with
West-African accent

Two students with
native Italian accent

8 / 21

Interview Guideline

9 / 21

Discrimination in Access to Basic Healthcare

Note: Panel A and B report raw data and associated densities. Panel C displays OLS estimates with 90 and 95% CI adjusted for municipality fixed effects.
n = 863 telephone calls (resp. 417 & 446) to 262 municipalities.

10 / 21

Electoral Wins of Far-Right Mayors

Source: Romarri (2020)

11 / 21

Far-Right Electoral Success and Access to Basic Healthcare

Note: n = 359 municipalities that lie within a "bandwidth" of ±5% of the electoral threshold of a far-right victory

12 / 21

Balanced Confounders at the Threshold

	% Foreign born	Population	Altitude	Economy	Educational distribution
RD-Robust	0.002	−0.155	0.304	−0.710	−0.809
	(0.568)	(0.422)	(0.435)	(0.407)	(0.475)
Bandwidth	4.057	3.806	6.374	2.846	5.442
Effective.cases	28 vs 66	28 vs 63	43 vs 100	19 vs 54	38 vs 94
Overall.cases	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186
* p

13 / 21

A Diff-in-RD Design

Note: Results are based on non-linear sharp RD estimates with triangular kernel, bandwidth selected by mserd, cluster-robust bias-corrected inference asu suggested by Calonico, Cattaneo, and Farrell (2020). Adjusted for municipality-level socio-economic deprivation, age structure, educational structure, population density, and altitude. BCa confidence intervals are based on 2,000 bootstraps.

14 / 21

Conclusion

Far-right electoral success threatens equal access to essential public services and thus potentially undermines public trust in government institutions.

Further research:

Test mechanisms through which far-right politics influence discriminatory practices.
Explore the generalizability of these findings to other sectors and countries.
Develop and evaluate interventions to mitigate discrimination in public services under far-right leadership.

Bell, E. and S. Jilke (2024). "Racial Discrimination and Administrative Burden in Access to Public Services". In: Scientific Reports, p. 1071.

Bursztyn, L., G. Egorov, and S. Fiorin (2020). "From Extreme to Mainstream: The Erosion of Social Norms". In: American Economic Review, pp. 3522-3548.

Calonico, S., M. D. Cattaneo, and M. H. Farrell (2020). "Optimal bandwidth choice for robust bias-corrected inference in regression discontinuity designs". In: The Econometrics Journal, pp. 192-210.

Guul, T. S. (2023). "Political Solutions to Discriminatory Behavior". In: American Political Science Review, pp. 719-733.

Hemker, J. and A. Rink (2017). "Multiple Dimensions of Bureaucratic Discrimination: Evidence from German Welfare Offices". In: American Journal of Political Science, pp. 786-803.

Olsen, A. L., J. H. Kyhse-Andersen, and D. Moynihan (2022). "The Unequal Distribution of Opportunity: A National Audit Study of Bureaucratic Discrimination in Primary School Access". In: American Journal of Political Science, pp. 587-603.

Romarri, A. (2020). Do Far-Right Mayors Increase the Probability of Hate Crimes? Evidence From Italy. SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3506811. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network.

15 / 21

Appendix16 / 21

Second round Elections
 
Decline

Questions

Diff-in-RD:

2.374

-0.001

     Ital. 
    W. African 
     Ital.  
    W. African  
  
    RD-Robust 
    0.693+ 
    3.067+ 
    0.132 
    0.132 
  
    (0.356) 
    (1.590) 
    (0.413) 
    (0.544) 
  
    Bandwidth 
    3.267 
    2.996 
    3.552 
    4.709 
  
    Effective.cases 
    32  vs  40 
    28  vs  45 
    34  vs  45 
    51  vs  61 
  
    Overall.cases 
    95  vs  118 
    111  vs  122 
    101  vs  123 
    121  vs  128 
  
 + p 

17 / 21

	Decline	Questions
RD-Robust	0.693+	3.067+	0.132	0.132
	(0.356)	(1.590)	(0.413)	(0.544)
Bandwidth	3.267	2.996	3.552	4.709
Effective.cases	32 vs 40	28 vs 45	34 vs 45	51 vs 61
Overall.cases	95 vs 118	111 vs 122	101 vs 123	121 vs 128
+ p

Binary decline outcome

$Binary version 1, "(Probably) Yes" = {\begin{cases} 1, & 1 or 2 \\ 0 & 3 to 5 \end{cases}$

(Probably) Yes		Native Italian accent	West-African accent
0	N	1	50
	% col	0.3	12.3
1	N	391	356
	% col	99.7	87.7

$Binary version 2, "(Probably) No" = {\begin{cases} 1, & 5 or 4 \\ 0 & 1 to 3 \end{cases}$

(Probably) No		Native Italian accent	West-African accent
0	N	392	394
	% col	100.0	97.0
1	N	0	12
	% col	0.0	3.0

18 / 21

Binary decline outcome Discrimination
 
    (Probably) Yes 
    (Probably) No 
  
    West-African Accent 
    −0.112*** 
    0.027** 
  
    (0.019) 
    (0.009) 
  
    Gender: Male 
    0.053** 
    0.000 
  
    (0.018) 
    (0.008) 
  
    Num.Obs. 
    798 
    798 
  
    R2 
    0.375 
    0.398 
  
    BIC 
    −337.4 
    −1481.8 
  
 + p 

19 / 21

	(Probably) Yes	(Probably) No
West-African Accent	−0.112***	0.027**
	(0.019)	(0.009)
Gender: Male	0.053**	0.000
	(0.018)	(0.008)
Num.Obs.	798	798
R2	0.375	0.398
BIC	−337.4	−1481.8
+ p

Binary decline outcome ΔRDΔRD
 
(Probably) Yes

(Probably) No

Diff-in-RD:

-0.134

     Ital. 
    W. African 
    W. African  
  
    RD-Robust 
    0.001 
    −0.133+ 
    0.086* 
  
    (0.001) 
    (0.076) 
    (0.044) 
  
    Bandwidth 
    5.384 
    3.568 
    3.031 
  
    Effective.cases 
    55  vs  138 
    35  vs  95 
    31  vs  87 
  
    Overall.cases 
    117  vs  275 
    133  vs  273 
    133  vs  273 
  
 + p 

20 / 21

	(Probably) Yes	(Probably) No
RD-Robust	0.001	−0.133+	0.086*
	(0.001)	(0.076)	(0.044)
Bandwidth	5.384	3.568	3.031
Effective.cases	55 vs 138	35 vs 95	31 vs 87
Overall.cases	117 vs 275	133 vs 273	133 vs 273
+ p

The Controls

# PCA to reduce dimensions of covariates and prohibit multicollinearity
#######################################################################
## Economy
(pca_econ <- cntrls %>% prcomp(
  formula = ~  sh_unemployed_2011 + sh_agriculture_epl_2011 + 
    sh_industry_epl_2011 + sh_commerce_epl_2011 + 
    sh_service_epl_2011 + sh_cars_2017,
  data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
  scale = TRUE))
cntrls$pca_econ <- -pca_econ$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()
## Educational qualification of pop
(pca_edu <- cntrls %>% prcomp(
  formula = ~ sh_illiterate_2011 + sh_sec_education_2011 + 
    sh_students_2011 + sh_university_enrolled_2016,
  data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
  scale = TRUE))
cntrls$pca_edu <- -pca_edu$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()
## Combine with further controls
cntrls <- cntrls %>%
  mutate(
    sh_foreing_16 = sh_foreing_16 %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # Share foreign Born in 2016
    pop2011 = (pop2011 / Superficieterritorialekmqal) %>% log() %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # logged population density
    Altitudinedelcentrometri = Altitudinedelcentrometri %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()) # Altitude

21 / 21

Help

Keyboard shortcuts

↑, ←, Pg Up, k

Go to previous slide

↓, →, Pg Dn, Space, j

Go to next slide

Home

Go to first slide

End

Go to last slide

Number + Return

Go to specific slide

b / m / f

Toggle blackout / mirrored / fullscreen mode

Clone slideshow

Toggle presenter mode

Restart the presentation timer

?, h

Toggle this help

Tile View: Overview of Slides

Far-right Electoral Success 

 Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination 

 Against Minorities
Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy
Krzysztof Krakowski, Dina Rosenberg, Alessio Romarri, and Merlin Schaeffer
2024-05-29
1 / 21

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Source: Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin (2020)

2 / 21

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

3 / 21

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Source: Romarri (2020)

4 / 21

Public Administrators Entrusted with Impartiality, but ...

Source: Olsen, Kyhse-Andersen, and Moynihan (2022)

Source: Hemker and Rink (2017)

5 / 21

Are Public Administrators 
 also Susceptibile to the Influence of 
 Far-Right Electoral Successes?6 / 21

Three Mechanisms (beyond scope the of this study)

Recruitment: Appointment of like-minded individuals to the administration,
Cream Skimming: Strategically allocate resources to force administrators to prioritize which citizens to serve (Guul, 2023; Bell and Jilke, 2024),
Erosion of Norms: Electoral success emboldens administrators to exercise discretion in ways that disadvantage minorities (Bursztyn, Egorov, and Fiorin, 2020).

7 / 21

A Field Experiment

8 / 21

A Field Experiment

Research assistants call 200
Italian "Azienda Sanitaria Locale"
to ask for a general medical practitioner.

Two students with
West-African accent

Two students with
native Italian accent

8 / 21

Interview Guideline

9 / 21

Discrimination in Access to Basic Healthcare

10 / 21

Electoral Wins of Far-Right Mayors

Source: Romarri (2020)

11 / 21

Far-Right Electoral Success and Access to Basic Healthcare

Note: n = 359 municipalities that lie within a "bandwidth" of ±5% of the electoral threshold of a far-right victory

12 / 21

Balanced Confounders at the Threshold

	% Foreign born	Population	Altitude	Economy	Educational distribution
RD-Robust	0.002	−0.155	0.304	−0.710	−0.809
	(0.568)	(0.422)	(0.435)	(0.407)	(0.475)
Bandwidth	4.057	3.806	6.374	2.846	5.442
Effective.cases	28 vs 66	28 vs 63	43 vs 100	19 vs 54	38 vs 94
Overall.cases	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186	80 vs 186
* p

13 / 21

A Diff-in-RD Design

14 / 21

Conclusion

Far-right electoral success threatens equal access to essential public services and thus potentially undermines public trust in government institutions.

Further research:

Test mechanisms through which far-right politics influence discriminatory practices.
Explore the generalizability of these findings to other sectors and countries.
Develop and evaluate interventions to mitigate discrimination in public services under far-right leadership.

Bell, E. and S. Jilke (2024). "Racial Discrimination and Administrative Burden in Access to Public Services". In: Scientific Reports, p. 1071.

Bursztyn, L., G. Egorov, and S. Fiorin (2020). "From Extreme to Mainstream: The Erosion of Social Norms". In: American Economic Review, pp. 3522-3548.

Guul, T. S. (2023). "Political Solutions to Discriminatory Behavior". In: American Political Science Review, pp. 719-733.

Hemker, J. and A. Rink (2017). "Multiple Dimensions of Bureaucratic Discrimination: Evidence from German Welfare Offices". In: American Journal of Political Science, pp. 786-803.

Romarri, A. (2020). Do Far-Right Mayors Increase the Probability of Hate Crimes? Evidence From Italy. SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3506811. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network.

15 / 21

Appendix16 / 21

Second round Elections
 
Decline

Questions

Diff-in-RD:

2.374

-0.001

     Ital. 
    W. African 
     Ital.  
    W. African  
  
    RD-Robust 
    0.693+ 
    3.067+ 
    0.132 
    0.132 
  
    (0.356) 
    (1.590) 
    (0.413) 
    (0.544) 
  
    Bandwidth 
    3.267 
    2.996 
    3.552 
    4.709 
  
    Effective.cases 
    32  vs  40 
    28  vs  45 
    34  vs  45 
    51  vs  61 
  
    Overall.cases 
    95  vs  118 
    111  vs  122 
    101  vs  123 
    121  vs  128 
  
 + p 

17 / 21

	Decline	Questions
RD-Robust	0.693+	3.067+	0.132	0.132
	(0.356)	(1.590)	(0.413)	(0.544)
Bandwidth	3.267	2.996	3.552	4.709
Effective.cases	32 vs 40	28 vs 45	34 vs 45	51 vs 61
Overall.cases	95 vs 118	111 vs 122	101 vs 123	121 vs 128
+ p

Binary decline outcome

$Binary version 1, "(Probably) Yes" = {\begin{cases} 1, & 1 or 2 \\ 0 & 3 to 5 \end{cases}$

(Probably) Yes		Native Italian accent	West-African accent
0	N	1	50
	% col	0.3	12.3
1	N	391	356
	% col	99.7	87.7

$Binary version 2, "(Probably) No" = {\begin{cases} 1, & 5 or 4 \\ 0 & 1 to 3 \end{cases}$

(Probably) No		Native Italian accent	West-African accent
0	N	392	394
	% col	100.0	97.0
1	N	0	12
	% col	0.0	3.0

18 / 21

Binary decline outcome Discrimination
 
    (Probably) Yes 
    (Probably) No 
  
    West-African Accent 
    −0.112*** 
    0.027** 
  
    (0.019) 
    (0.009) 
  
    Gender: Male 
    0.053** 
    0.000 
  
    (0.018) 
    (0.008) 
  
    Num.Obs. 
    798 
    798 
  
    R2 
    0.375 
    0.398 
  
    BIC 
    −337.4 
    −1481.8 
  
 + p 

19 / 21

	(Probably) Yes	(Probably) No
West-African Accent	−0.112***	0.027**
	(0.019)	(0.009)
Gender: Male	0.053**	0.000
	(0.018)	(0.008)
Num.Obs.	798	798
R2	0.375	0.398
BIC	−337.4	−1481.8
+ p

Binary decline outcome ΔRDΔRD
 
(Probably) Yes

(Probably) No

Diff-in-RD:

-0.134

     Ital. 
    W. African 
    W. African  
  
    RD-Robust 
    0.001 
    −0.133+ 
    0.086* 
  
    (0.001) 
    (0.076) 
    (0.044) 
  
    Bandwidth 
    5.384 
    3.568 
    3.031 
  
    Effective.cases 
    55  vs  138 
    35  vs  95 
    31  vs  87 
  
    Overall.cases 
    117  vs  275 
    133  vs  273 
    133  vs  273 
  
 + p 

20 / 21

	(Probably) Yes	(Probably) No
RD-Robust	0.001	−0.133+	0.086*
	(0.001)	(0.076)	(0.044)
Bandwidth	5.384	3.568	3.031
Effective.cases	55 vs 138	35 vs 95	31 vs 87
Overall.cases	117 vs 275	133 vs 273	133 vs 273
+ p

The Controls

# PCA to reduce dimensions of covariates and prohibit multicollinearity
#######################################################################
## Economy
(pca_econ <- cntrls %>% prcomp(
  formula = ~  sh_unemployed_2011 + sh_agriculture_epl_2011 + 
    sh_industry_epl_2011 + sh_commerce_epl_2011 + 
    sh_service_epl_2011 + sh_cars_2017,
  data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
  scale = TRUE))
cntrls$pca_econ <- -pca_econ$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()
## Educational qualification of pop
(pca_edu <- cntrls %>% prcomp(
  formula = ~ sh_illiterate_2011 + sh_sec_education_2011 + 
    sh_students_2011 + sh_university_enrolled_2016,
  data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
  scale = TRUE))
cntrls$pca_edu <- -pca_edu$x[ , "PC1"] %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()
## Combine with further controls
cntrls <- cntrls %>%
  mutate(
    sh_foreing_16 = sh_foreing_16 %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # Share foreign Born in 2016
    pop2011 = (pop2011 / Superficieterritorialekmqal) %>% log() %>% scale() %>% as.numeric(), # logged population density
    Altitudinedelcentrometri = Altitudinedelcentrometri %>% scale() %>% as.numeric()) # Altitude

21 / 21

	Decline		Questions
Diff-in-RD:	2.374		-0.001
	Ital.	W. African	Ital.	W. African
RD-Robust	0.693+	3.067+	0.132	0.132
	(0.356)	(1.590)	(0.413)	(0.544)
Bandwidth	3.267	2.996	3.552	4.709
Effective.cases	32 vs 40	28 vs 45	34 vs 45	51 vs 61
Overall.cases	95 vs 118	111 vs 122	101 vs 123	121 vs 128
+ p

	(Probably) Yes		(Probably) No
Diff-in-RD:	-0.134
	Ital.	W. African	W. African
RD-Robust	0.001	−0.133+	0.086*
	(0.001)	(0.076)	(0.044)
Bandwidth	5.384	3.568	3.031
Effective.cases	55 vs 138	35 vs 95	31 vs 87
Overall.cases	117 vs 275	133 vs 273	133 vs 273
+ p

Far-right Electoral Success Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination Against Minorities

Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy

Krzysztof Krakowski, Dina Rosenberg, Alessio Romarri, and Merlin Schaeffer

2024-05-29

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Public Administrators Entrusted with Impartiality, but ...

Are Public Administrators also Susceptibile to the Influence of Far-Right Electoral Successes?

Three Mechanisms (beyond scope the of this study)

A Field Experiment

A Field Experiment

Interview Guideline

Discrimination in Access to Basic Healthcare

Electoral Wins of Far-Right Mayors

Far-Right Electoral Success and Access to Basic Healthcare

Balanced Confounders at the Threshold

A Diff-in-RD Design

Conclusion

Appendix

Second round Elections

Binary decline outcome

Binary decline outcome Discrimination

Binary decline outcome ΔRDΔRD

The Controls

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Help

Far-right Electoral Success Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination Against Minorities

Far-right Electoral Success Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination Against Minorities

Evidence from a Field Experiment in Italy

Krzysztof Krakowski, Dina Rosenberg, Alessio Romarri, and Merlin Schaeffer

2024-05-29

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Far-right Electoral Wins Increase Racism

Public Administrators Entrusted with Impartiality, but ...

Are Public Administrators also Susceptibile to the Influence of Far-Right Electoral Successes?

Three Mechanisms (beyond scope the of this study)

A Field Experiment

A Field Experiment

Interview Guideline

Discrimination in Access to Basic Healthcare

Electoral Wins of Far-Right Mayors

Far-Right Electoral Success and Access to Basic Healthcare

Balanced Confounders at the Threshold

A Diff-in-RD Design

Conclusion

Appendix

Second round Elections

Binary decline outcome

Binary decline outcome Discrimination

Binary decline outcome ΔRDΔRD

The Controls

Far-right Electoral Success

Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination

Against Minorities

Are Public Administrators
also Susceptibile to the Influence of
Far-Right Electoral Successes?

Binary decline outcome $Δ_{RD}$

Far-right Electoral Success

Exacerbates Administrative Discrimination

Against Minorities

Are Public Administrators
also Susceptibile to the Influence of
Far-Right Electoral Successes?

Binary decline outcome $Δ_{RD}$